HAILSTATEBEAT: Keys to the Game - Alabama

For each home game, the Hail State Beat writes a Keys to the Game story for the game program. You can find the printed version of this week's Keys to the Game in programs in and around Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday.

NO BIG PLAYS

Mississippi State is playing one of the best teams in the country, hosting one of college football's biggest matchups this week in Davis Wade Stadium. It's a game with National Championship and SEC Championship implications, and for all the other ranked teams in the country, the course of the 2017 college football season could depend on what happens for 60 minutes in Starkville, no matter which team wins.

For all that's on the line, the keys for MSU against Alabama are actually pretty simple and quite straightforward. If MSU is able to do these two things, the Bulldogs will probably pull off the upset. If they can't, they probably won't.

First, MSU has to limit big plays by the Tide offense. Big plays have been the theme of every defensive performance for MSU this year. In six blowout victories, State hardly gave up any. But in the two losses, the typically-strong unit made big mistakes. Georgia, for example, had touchdown plays of 59, 41 and 28 yards. Auburn? They had four pass completions over 47 yards and three rushes of 30-plus. In the one close game – win or loss – MSU has played in all year, UMass scored its only offensive touchdown on a 69-yard pass.

If MSU can limit Bama's big plays, then Todd Grantham's defense ought to be able to make things manageable for the Bulldog offense.

RUN THE BALL

A strong performance by the defense is certainly a serious matter as it relates to State's chances, but the absolute most important thing for MSU is its own rushing attack. There has been no clearer indicator of success for Dan Mullen's team this year than its ability to run the ball.

In seven wins this year: 1,963 total rushing yards, 5.84 yards per carry and 280.4 yards per game.

In two losses this year: 371 total rushing yards, 4.41 yards per carry and 185.5 yards per game.

With quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (fifth, 89 yards per game) and running back Aeris Williams (8th, 86.22 yards per game) as two of the SEC's Top-10 rushers this year, MSU has one of the most effective and most dangerous running games in America. The fact that they're still averaging nearly 200 yards per game even in losses speaks to just how successful they've been. However, the numbers show a 100-yards-per-game and yard-and-a-half-per-carry difference in wins and losses and a look at the opponent shows that it is immensely clear that State needs its rush attack to be elite to win this week.

Alabama's rush defense, to the surprise of no one, is just as effective at stopping runs as MSU is at making them. The Tide are only allowing 76 yards per game on the ground, holding opponents to a measly 2.51 yards per carry. Yowza. But there is a reason for MSU to be a little more optimistic. Bama's front seven has been hurt by injury as the season has gone along, and though the Crimson Tide won last week, LSU showed that it's becoming more possible to run the ball on the vaunted Bama defense. The Tigers had a net of 151 yards on the ground, though that number includes six sacks. LSU running backs gained a total of 192, averaging a little under four yards per carry.

Those numbers are still in the range of losses rather than wins for MSU, but with the best rushing quarterback in the conference and a big, powerful offensive line that's given up the third-fewest sacks in the country, there is reason to believe in these underdog Bulldogs.

Mississippi State University Athletics

HAILSTATEBEAT: Keys to the Game - Alabama

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